A week is a long time in politics, so the saying goes. Indeed, despite the many projections for a nail biting US election - too close to call, supposedly - who could have foreseen such a convincing victory for former President Trump? And as the dust slowly settles, Welsh farmers, like so many others, will inevitably start speculating about the implications of a Trump 2.0 administration on the industry.
From an agricultural perspective, cross-Atlantic trade will no doubt be the main consideration. For many farmers, Trump’s first presidency became synonymous with talk of chlorinated chicken and hormone-injected beef. Could his return to the White House, together with his previous enthusiasm towards a post-Brexit trade deal, resurrect the threat of our markets being flooded by low quality food? In a similar vein, what impact will Trump’s much-heralded tariffs, a key campaign commitment, and his self-confessed favourite word, have on Welsh trade and agriculture?
It isn’t just the economy either; Trump's unique approach to foreign policy, both in Ukraine and the Middle East, not to mention his climate change denial, could have serious repercussions on energy prices, global security, and crucially, food security. There’s certainly a lot to think about over the coming weeks and months.
Returning across the Atlantic to the UK, much of the farming sector’s attention rightly remains fixed on the fall out from the Budget and concerns over measures that could see our farms hit hard. The changes to inheritance tax through the reform of Agricultural Property Relief (APR), continues to dominate the headlines with the Government’s lack of clarity and questionable figures regarding the change further fanning the flames of frustration within the sector.
APR has long aided and incentivised farms to pass from generation to generation, and the FUW is continuing to press to ensure these proposed changes do not harm the viability of our Welsh family farms, which remain so crucial to food production and our rural communities. To this end, FUW met with the Secretary of State for Wales last week to discuss the changes and we look forward to the Welsh Labour Conference in Llandudno this weekend to further lobby MPs regarding the proposals.
However, while post-Budget discussions have been dominated by APR, there are other aspects which will be of concern to the sector, too. DEFRA funding, a department which saw a significant shrinking in budgets during the previous government’s tenure, has seen a slight increase to £2.5 billion, however, the consequential funding to Wales is likely to fall well short of the budgets required to reflect inflation and the plethora of public goods farmers are increasingly expected to deliver. Many other farmers will rightly be concerned about the implications of an above-inflation increase in the National Living Wage, together with a carbon tax on imported fertiliser.
All of these changes and shrinking budgets amidst a landscape of growing global uncertainty risk placing further pressure on our hardpressed farmers at a cost that will inevitably be borne by the supply chain and our consumers.