The Welsh red meat industry is hoping that the positive position generated by current industry supply and demand trends will extend into the all-important festive season.

“The signs are there: it’s still early of course, but there can be some optimism for another good Christmas for quality red meat,” reasoned Glesni Phillips, Hybu Cig Cymru-Meat Promotion Wales’ (HCC) Intelligence, Analysis & Business Insight Executive.

“Volume sales of lamb for the year to date are up four per cent on the year, which is very positive for the sector - and encourage hopes of a good festive season for Welsh red meat,” said Glesni.

Glesni’s interpretations of the marketplace and its outlook can be found in detail in this month’s HCC Market Bulletin, available online.

Looking across the market in detail, Glesni reported: “Supply continues to be down. Data from Defra for sheep throughput up to September 2024 shows a nine percent decrease compared to last year, with a total of 9.3 million sheep processed. Both lamb and adult sheep numbers are contributing to this decline.

“Lamb throughput is down eight per cent, despite slight peaks in January and February. Due to an estimated smaller lamb crop this year, a tighter supply was to be expected, but current numbers are even lower than expected.”

She said monthly throughput levels have not surpassed the million-head mark in any of the first nine months of 2024, suggesting that new season lambs have been slow to come forward.

“UK abattoirs have processed 4.48 million lambs from the current lamb crop so far - a significant nine per cent drop from year-earlier levels.”

This tightening of supply has helped to maintain price levels.

“The GB prime lamb deadweight average price remains firmly above the £6/kilo mark, despite seven consecutive weeks of downward price movements,” she said. “The most recent average stands some eight per cent higher than year-earlier levels at 618.5p/kg.”

Kantar consumer data for the 12-week period ending 29th September shows that lamb volume sales remained stable, up 0.5 per cent on the year, driven by a five per cent increase in existing shoppers buying more. Grocery price inflation, while lower than its peak, rose slightly to two per cent in this quarterly period but had not seemed to impact on shopper’s determination to buy their favourite red meat cuts.

HCC’s Market Bulletin can be found here: https://meatpromotion.wales/en/news-industry-info/market-bulletin